Welcome Address by Mr Sunny Verghese Chairman, IE Singapore
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
0910
Opening Address by Mr Lim Hng Kiang Minister for Trade & Industry, Singapore
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
0930
Session 1: Busting of the Global Commodities Super Cycle?
Panellists
Mr Glenn E. Simpson, President, ConocoPhillips International Inc.
Mr K K Maheshwari, Head, Global Chemical Business, Global Trading Business and Management Services Division, Aditya Birla Group
Dr Paul Horsnell, Managing Director, Head of Commodities Research, Barclays Capital
Mr Ralph Oppenheimer, Executive Chairman, Stemcor Holdings Limited
Commodities companies are now operating in unchartered waters. Prices of key commodities, including oil, coal, precious metals, ferrous metals, and agri-commodities reached historical highs and are now plunging by breathtaking amounts, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty. Many theories have been put forth for this situation, the most popular being speculation and imbalances in global supply and demand.
The session seeks to explore the following:
What have been the driving forces behind this boom and now the bust? How much could be attributed to financial speculation?
Has there been a fundamental shift in the supply - demand balance?
What are the likely scenarios that will pan out?
Has government intervention and interference exacerbate the distortions and volatilities? Should free market forces be allowed to reign?
What strategies can companies adopt to survive in these times?
Who will be left standing after the shake out? Do 3rd party traders stand a chance in this game?
Mr Christopher Hogan, Global Managing, Director of Petrochemicals & Polymers Businesses, Noble Resources Pte Ltd (A Member of the Noble Group)
Mr Pedro Rodrigues (TBA), Director, Merger & Acquisitions, Vale
Mr Sunny Verghese, Group Managing Director & CEO, Olam International
Mr Leonardo Harris, Director of Mergers Acquisitions, Vale
Mergers and acquisitions have been an ongoing phenomenon in the past few years. Leaders in various industries such as Arcelor-Mittal, UC RUSAL, and Gaz de France Suez are prime examples of companies that were born out of M&As. A new breed of Asian commodity houses such as Wilmar-Kuok is also starting to make their presence felt in the global arena.
What are the key triggers of such mergers?
What impact does this have on independent traders? In particular, will the formation of these global giants disintermediate the value chain and hurt the smaller companies?
Will Asia produce the next giants? In view of the growing importance of Asia, will Asian companies eventually be able to dominate global markets similar to their Western counterparts?
Some have questioned that this consolidation may lead to competition policy issues. How real is this concern?
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
1200
Lunch Hosted by International Trading Institute (ITI) Supported by Industry Partner, Koch Refining International Pte Ltd
Canning Room, Level 4
1330
Session 3: The Day After Tomorrow - Financing in Crisis
Panellists
Mr Eric de Turckheim, Member of the Supervisory Board, Trafigura Beheer B V
Mr Ito van Lanschot, Chairman & CEO, Nidera
Mr James Parsons, Portfolio Manager, BlueCrest Capital Management
Mr Tan Kah Chye, Global Head of Trade Finance, Transaction Banking, Standard Chartered Bank
The credit crisis has fundamentally changed the face of the global financial sector. Venerable Wall Street names such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers have disappeared while others such as Goldman Sachs have transformed themselves as they seek to survive the crisis. Against the backdrop of a looming global economic recession, banks have become very risk adverse, moving to conserve and preserve their capital, lighten and deleverage their balance sheet. With the extreme volatilities seen in global commodity prices, commodity trading houses, whether big or small, are been scrutinized by banks before being offered credit. This is taking its toll on trading volume and profits.
Amidst this doom and gloom, is there a ray of hope? What sort of deals do banks continue to view favorably? Are there new credit solutions and products that are being developed in response to the current climate?
Can Asian trade financiers step in to fill the gap? European institutions have traditionally been the global leaders in trade finance, but many companies have reflected that Asian institutions have tried to enter this space over the past years. What has triggered the change? What more can the Singapore based banking community do?
Does the government have a role in supporting and promoting the sector?
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
1430
Session 4: The Rise of the Asian Commodity Exchange
Panellists
Mr Mikal Bøe, Managing Director, Commodities, MF Global Asia Pte Ltd
Mr Nick Ronalds, Executive Director, FIA Asia
Mr Thomas J McMahon, Chief Executive Officer, Singapore Mercantile Exchange
Despite Asia being a strong demand centre, a strong Asian commodity derivative exchange has yet to emerge. Most of the exchanges are domestic, such as Dalian, Shanghai and Tokyo. Whether by regulation or focus, we are starting to see `a multitude of exchanges ranging from the Dubai Mercantile Exchange to the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange and the Singapore Mercantile Exchange. It is debatable whether the Asian based exchanges, in particular, the "new kids on the block", will succeed and meet the needs of the market place, especially since exchanges such as NYMEX, ICE, CBOT are established and have global platforms where business is conducted in cyberspace.
Is the dominance of a few global exchanges a foregone conclusion? Is this a healthy/desirable development for the commodities industry?
What are the factors inhibiting the growth of a truly Asian exchange? Generating liquidity is crucial for the success of any exchange, and yet, no one party wants to be the first mover. As such, would getting trading companies to take equity stakes in new exchanges help ensure that they secure the necessary liquidity and industry support to get off to a good start? Should new exchanges focus their efforts on particular classes of commodities?
Are Asian products sufficiently well-hedged? Would companies be willing to take to Asian specific commodities pricing or an Asian commodities index?
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
1530
Networking Coffee Break
Raffles Foyer, Level 4
1545
Session 5: Discovering Frontier Markets
Panellists
Mr Andreas Schwingshackl, Senior Vice President, Crude & Risk Management, OMV Refining and Marketing GmbH
Mr Cüneyt Ağca, General Manager & Board Member, Opet Petrolcülük AS
Mr Ian Taylor, President & Chief Executive, The Vitol Group of Companies
Even as China and India continue to dominate the headlines, companies are finding new opportunities in new frontier markets. With increasing wealth from the commodity boom, regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa, have become large markets in their own right.
What are the characteristics of these markets and what should companies watch out for, politically, economically, socially?
What are the key challenges with doing business with these frontier markets?
Is exposure to these frontier markets vs developed markets a boon or bane in these times?
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
1645
End of Day 1 Conference
1830
Registration for Global Trader Networking Dinner
Convention Foyer B, Level 4
1915
Global Trader Networking Dinner Opening Address by Mr Lim Hng Kiang Minister for Trade & Industry, Singapore
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
2100
End of Global Trader Networking Dinner
DAY TWO - WEDNESDAY 27 MAY
0900
Session 6: Is the Middleman Going the Way of the Dinosaur?
Panellists
Ms Leung Wai Ping, Executive Director, Li & Fung Limited
Mr Matthew De Morgan, CEO, Duferco International Trading Holdings
Mr Paul H Stebbins, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, World Fuel Services Corporation
Mr Hans-Peter Udo Reimer, Chairman Supervisory Board, Interchem Group
Mr Setrak Bahceli, Managing Director, BASF Intertrade AG
Trading companies are increasingly challenged to evolve and stay competitive. The trading environment has evolved as information becomes easily available and deals are transparent. In many sectors, manufacturers and suppliers are reaching out to customers directly without the need for a middleman. Increasingly, as deals become transparent, the pricing of products is moving away from being based solely on bilateral negotiations. Some traders have responded by integrating upstream and downstream, securing trading infrastructure such as transportation resources or moving into parallel sectors. Others have also chosen to add value to their customers by offering financing solutions.
Do traders add value to the supply chain? Or do they destroy value?
Is relationship based trading still valuable today? Or do deals depend on who offers the best price?
How has the role of traders evolved and what are the methods which traders have adopted to stay relevant?
Padang & Collyer Room, Level 4
1030
Networking Coffee Break
Raffles Foyer, Level 4
1100
Session 7: Shipping: Sailing into Uncharted Waters
Panellists
Mr Gert-Jan van den Akker, President, Cargill Ocean Transportation
Mr Jonathan Le Feuvre, Managing Director, Fearnleys Asia (Singapore) Pte Ltd
Mr Kent Paulli, Director, ST Shipping and Transport Pte Ltd (A member of the Glencore Group)
Mr Vivek Agarwal, Managing Director, VISA Resources Pte Ltd
The rise and fall of bulk shipping rates in 2008 have mirrored the commodity markets. Soaring to unprecedented levels in the first half of 2008 and falling into the abyss with the Baltic Dry Index plunging over 90% in the second half, the change in the market has been severe and sudden, leaving the shipping industry reeling. At least four dry bulk shipping lines, including Armada (Singapore) Pte and Britannia Bulk Holdings Plc, have sought protection from creditors worldwide since last October as the global recession saps demand for shipments of iron ore and coal. An estimated 20% of dry bulk capacity sits empty.
Are the rock bottom rates a boon or bane to trading? Are there any winners? Who are the losers?
How should companies manage freight risk in such extreme volatility? Should companies expand into shipping as a hedge?
With more shipping lines expected to go under, how can companies protect themselves against defaults and non performance by shipping lines?
Given the risks, should companies go back to the FOB trading models to reduce their freight exposures?
How are freight markets likely to fare in the 3rd, 4th quarter this year and early next year? How does this downturn in shipping compare to previous cycles?
